Autonomous Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) is 2-3 Years Away ...

Autonomous Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) is 2-3 Years Away, For Real ... "Autonomous cars will be here in 2 years" has been a standard sentence ... ResearchArticlesWebJournalsIDTechExTVTimelinesWebinarsPreviousEvents AutonomousMobility-as-a-Service(MaaS)is2-3YearsAway,ForReal HomeTechnologiesResearchHighlightsAutonomousMobility-as-a-Service(MaaS)is2-3YearsAway,ForReal AutonomousMobility-as-a-Service(MaaS)is2-3YearsAway,ForReal May31,2021 DrJamesJeffs "Autonomouscarswillbeherein2years"hasbeenastandardsentencefromtheindustryforthepast5yearsorso.Nowthereisgoodreasontoexpectautonomousride-hailingservicestohitourroadswithin3years.So,whathashappenedinthelastyearintheworldofautonomytogivethisconfidenceboost?Well,afewthingsactually.Breakingthepreviousyeardownintothemostsignificantadvancements:COVID-19haskick-startedthenextphaseofautonomoustesting,technologymaturitycontinuestomorethandoubleyearonyear,sensorpricesarecomingdownandperformanceisincreasing,andtherearegenuineautonomousservicesavailable,justinverylimitedconditions.TomarkAutonomousVehicleDay,observedonMay31,thisarticleexaminesprogressinmoredetail. TheimpactofCOVID-19 TheCOVID-19pandemichasundoubtedlyhadadevastatingimpactontheworldoverthepastyearorso.However,opportunitycanoftenbefoundinthefaceofadversity,andthiswasthecaseforautonomy.Atthebeginningofthepandemic,thecompaniesthathadbeentestingautonomousserviceswithsafety/backupdriversbehindthewheel(Waymo,Cruise,Baidu,Pony,etc.)wereforcedtoceasetesting.Therewasconcernaboutthesocialcontactbetweentheridersandthesafetydriversbeingafactorinspreadingthepandemic.Hereiswheretheopportunitywaspresented;itseemedthatthesafestwaytocontinuetestingwaswithoutthesafetydriverbehindthewheel. InJuly2020,AutoXbecamethefirstMaaScompany1togainadriverlesstestinglicense,aworld-firstwhichallowedthemtooperatedriverlessvehiclesinCalifornia.ThenewlicensetypeallowedthemtooperateafullyautonomousserviceinSanJose,limitedtoroadswithapostedspeedlimitof45mphorless.Followingthat,anothersixcompanieshavebeengrantedsimilarlicensesinCaliforniaandothershavegainedsimilarlicensesforpartsofChina. COVID-19mayhavebeenthecatalystneededtotransitionfromsafety-driver-basedtestingtofullyautonomoustesting.Thisisnottosaythattheindustrywasnotreadyforthetransition,butthepandemicdefinitelyputpressureonthegoverningbodiestoprogresstothenextstep. Technologymaturity MaaSoperatorshavebeentestingtheirautonomoussolutionsinCaliforniasince2015,andsincethentheyhavebeenpublishingreportsabouttheperformanceoftheirsystems.Themostimportantoutcomefromthisdataisthemilesperdisengagementmetric,whichdescribestheaveragedistanceanautonomousvehiclecantravelwithouthumanintervention.IDTechEx'sanalysisofthisdatashowsexponentialgrowthinthemilesperdisengagement,withthefiguremorethandoublingeachyear.ByextrapolatingthisgrowthIDTechExpredictsthatwithin3yearsautonomousvehicleswillbeperformingmoresafelythantheaverageAmericandriver.IDTechExevenwentonestepfurtherandfoundthatwithin25yearsautonomousvehicleswillbeabletotravelthesameannualdistanceastheentireUSfleetwithoutasingledisengagement. Therearestillobstaclestoovercome,suchastestinginmoreurbanizedareasandtheestablishmentofcost-effectivesensorsuites.WaymoandCruisehaverecentlygainedpermissiontotestintheurbancentersofSanFranciscowhichwillhelpwiththeformer. Figure1.IDTechExanalysisofCaliforniaDMVandNHTSAdata.Source:IDTechEx Sensoradvancementsandpricereductions AppledrivingdownpricesofLiDAR WhileAppleisperpetuallygeneratinghype,andnotmuchmore,whenitcomestoautonomy,theyhaveinadvertentlyhadanenormousimpactwhenitcomestosensors.InNovember2020Appleannounceditsnewmodelline-up,withnewfeatures,oneofwhichwastheimplementationofLiDARontheiPhone12ProandiPadPro.AppleareusingtherangingfeaturesofLiDARtoimprovedistancingforauto-focusandimproveaugmentedrealityfeatures.However,theknock-oneffectofthismass-marketadoptionofLiDARisthepricereductionofkeycomponentsapplicabletoautomotiveLiDAR.VelodynehavesaidtheirVelarrayH800LiDARunitwillhaveapricetagoflessthan$500,amassiveimprovementcomparedtothe~$10,000LiDARpricetagsofacoupleofyearsago,and~$75,000beforethat.MoreonthelatestinLiDARtechnologiescanbefoundinIDTechEx'scoverageoftheADASSensors2021conference. LiDARisavitalsensorforautonomousvehicles,itprovidesimagequalitysufficientforobjectclassificationlikeacamera,whilealsobringingthenight-timeperformanceandrangingabilitiesofaradar.Thisisparticularlycrucialfornight-timeoperation,whereacamerastruggleswithpoorlightandradarcannotprovideenoughimagequality.IDTechExisnowseeingsensorsuiteswith7lidarunits,hencebeingabletosourceLiDARsatareasonablepriceisvitalforthemassproductionofMaaSreadyvehicles.FormoreonLiDARseetheindepthLiDARreportfromIDTechEx,completewithforecasts. Imagingradarscomingtomarket Anothersensoradvancementtogetexcitedaboutistheemergenceofimagingradars.Incumbentradarshave12virtualchannels,similartopixelsinacamera,whichallowsthemtodetectanobjectandreturnitsdistanceandspeed.Whenfusedwithinformationfromacamerathisisincrediblypowerfulasthesystemcandetectanobject(anothercar,forexample),classifyitusingthewealthofdatafromthecamera,thenattachanaccuratespeedanddistancefromtheradar.However,whenthecameraisnotfunctioningwell(forexampleatnight,indirectlight,inheavyfog,etc.)thentheonlyinformationthesystemhasisanobjectatxdistancemovingatymilesperhour.Thisisclearlynotsufficienttooperateautonomouslyastheobjectdetectedcouldbeaninnocuousbridgetodriveunderorastationaryvehicle. Thisiswhereimagingradarscomein.Imagingradars,likeContinental'sARS540,have~200virtualchannels,whichallowsthemtomakethedistinctionsdescribedabove.Furthermore,Arbeisbringingaradartothemarketwith2000virtualchannels.WhileArbearecurrentlyinthestart-upphase,theyhavealreadyagreedtosupply400,000unitstoAutoX,aleaderinautonomy.Mobileye,asubsidiaryofIntelhasalsosaidtheyplantobringa2000virtualchannelradartomarket,althoughtheirswon'tbereadyforafewmoreyears.FindoutmoreaboutautomotiveradarkeyplayersandforecastsinthereportbyIDTechEx,"AutomotiveRadar2020-2040:Devices,Materials,Processing,AI,Markets,andPlayers". Theseadvancementsinthecostandperformanceofsensorscertainlyprovidealittlemoreconfidenceinthegrowingperformanceofautonomousvehicles. Finally,wearealreadythere Todayyoucanpayforadriverlessautonomousvehicletopickyouupandtakeyoutoyourdestination,inafullyautonomousservice.TheserviceisprovidedbyBaiduandyourdestinationmustbeoneofeightstopsaroundtheShougangParkareaofBeijing.Yes,thisisalimitedexamplewithonly10vehiclesinoperation,butitishappening,anditisonlyasmallprogressionfromotherautonomousserviceswhicharenotyetcommercial.Forexample,AutoXrecentlycelebrated100daysofcontinuousdriverlesstestinginthecityofShenzhen,China.TherearealsoeightcompaniestestingdriverlessMaaSinCaliforniaandneighboringstates,withmanyofferingfullyautonomousservicesinlimitedareas. Thenextstepsarelikelytobethecommercializationofthecurrenttestingsites.Thenaprogressiverolloutfromsuburbstocities,thenfromcitiestomorecities,muchinthesamewayasUberwasexpandedcitybycityatthestartofthelastdecade.SomeoftheMaaSprovidersaresaying2023forthestartofthisrollout,andaccordingtocurrentanalysisbyIDTechEx,thisdoesn'tseemamillionmilesaway. IDTechExisactivelyresearchingMaaSandautonomyandwillbereleasinganewcomprehensivereportontheareasoon.InthemeantimeseetheIDTechExportalforregularupdatesintheformofpremiumarticles,companyprofiles,webinarsandmore.ForthefullportfolioofAutonomyresearchavailablefromIDTechEx,includingthereport"AutonomousCarsandRobotaxis2020-2040:Players,TechnologiesandMarketForecast",pleasevistwww.IDTechEx.com/Research/Robotics. IDTechEx'steamofexpertanalyststrackemergingtechnologiesovertime,buildingextensivepersonalnetworkswithintheindustryofstudyandsupportingcustomersusingtheseconnections.Anyreportpurchasecomeswithaminimumof30minutes"analysttime",withcustomersalsohavingtheoptiontosubscribeonanannualbasistoIDTechEx'sresearchbytopic.FormoreinformationaboutthebenefitsofIDTechEx'sreports,orforspecificquestions,[email protected]. IDTechExguidesyourstrategicbusinessdecisionsthroughitsResearch,SubscriptionandConsultancyproducts,helpingyouprofitfromemergingtechnologies.Formoreinformation,[email protected].   PrintForwardTweetLikePinredditShare Previous Next RelatedResearch IDTechExresearch Lidar2020-2030:Technologies,Players,Markets&Forecasts AutomotiveRadar2022-2042 MobileRoboticsinLogistics,WarehousingandDelivery2022-2042 SmartCityMaterials,Systems,Markets2022-2042 Morearticles ThreeReasonsRadarisCriticalfortheFutureofMobility JointheUpcomingIDTechExWebinar-SmartCitiesin2022 TheBiggestChallengeforAutonomousVehicles SixFutureMobilityTrendsfromIDTechExResearch IDTechExTV ImageSensorTechnologyTrends 1000MileElectricCarsforEveryone More