GDPNow - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 and social mobility beyond their impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have ... Skipto content Weusecookiesonourwebsitetogiveyouthebestonlineexperience.Pleaseknowthatifyoucontinuetobrowseonoursite,youagreetothisuse.Youcanalwaysblockordisablecookiesusingyourbrowsersettings.Tofindoutmore,pleasereviewourprivacypolicy. Proceed CenterforQuantitativeEconomicResearch Thegrowthrateofrealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)isakeyindicatorofeconomicactivity,buttheofficialestimateisreleasedwithadelay.OurGDPNowforecastingmodelprovidesa"nowcast"oftheofficialestimatepriortoitsreleasebyestimatingGDPgrowthusingamethodologysimilartotheoneusedbytheU.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis. GDPNowisnotanofficialforecastoftheAtlantaFed.Rather,itisbestviewedasarunningestimateofrealGDPgrowthbasedonavailableeconomicdataforthecurrentmeasuredquarter.TherearenosubjectiveadjustmentsmadetoGDPNow—theestimateisbasedsolelyonthemathematicalresultsofthemodel.Inparticular,itdoesnotcapturetheimpactofCOVID-19andsocialmobilitybeyondtheirimpactonGDPsourcedataandrelevanteconomicreportsthathavealreadybeenreleased.Itdoesnotanticipatetheirimpactonforthcomingeconomicreportsbeyondthestandardinternaldynamicsofthemodel. RecentforecastsfortheGDPNowmodelareavailablehere.Moreextensivenumericaldetails—includingunderlyingsourcedata,forecasts,andmodelparameters—areavailableasaseparatespreadsheet.YoucanalsoviewanarchiveofrecentcommentariesfromGDPNowestimates. PleasenotethatwenolongersupporttheGDPNowapp.DownloadourEconomyNowapporgotoourwebsitetocontinuetogetthelatestGDPnowcastandmoreeconomicdata. Latestestimate: 0.0 percent— June16,2022 TheGDPNowmodelestimateforrealGDPgrowth(seasonallyadjustedannualrate)inthesecondquarterof2022is0.0percentonJune16,unchangedfromJune15afterrounding.Afterthismorning'shousingstartsreportfromtheUSCensusBureau,thenowcastofsecond-quarterrealresidentialinvestmentgrowthincreasedfrom-8.5percentto-7.7percent. ThenextGDPNowupdateisMonday,June27.Pleaseseethe"ReleaseDates"tabbelowforalistofupcomingreleases. RelatedResources GDPNowForecast GDPNowModelDataandHistoricalForecasts GDPNowReleaseDates GDPNowRSSfeed GDPNow:AModelforGDP"Nowcasting,"WorkingPaper14-7 macroblogonBuildingaBetterModel:IntroducingChangestoGDPNow ModificationstoGDPNowModelForecast ViewGDPNowintheEconomyNowApp SubscribetoEmailUpdates Doyouwanttoaskaquestion? WhatIsGDPNow? InthisvideoeconomistPatHiggins,GDPNow'screator,discussesthedifferencebetweennowcastingandforecasting. Watchthevideo GoingInsideGDPNow InthisEconomyMatterspodcast,AtlantaFedpolicyadviserandeconomistPatHiggins,thecreatorofGDPNow,discussesthetool,howitworks,andsomeofthechallengesinvolvedinmeasuringtheeconomy. Listentothepodcast ModelDescription FrequentlyAskedQuestions SubcomponentContributionCharts ReleaseDates ModelDescription Thegrowthrateofrealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)measuredbytheU.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis(BEA)isakeymetricofthepaceofeconomicactivity.ItisoneofthefourvariablesincludedintheeconomicprojectionsofFederalReserveBoardmembersandBankpresidentsforeveryotherFederalOpenMarketCommittee(FOMC)meeting.Aswithmanyeconomicstatistics,GDPestimatesarereleasedwithalagwhosetimingcanbeimportantforpolicymakers.Forexample,ofthefourscheduled2014releasedatesofan“advance”(orfirst)estimateofGDPgrowth,twoareontheseconddayofascheduledFOMCmeetingwiththeothertwoonthedayafterthemeeting.InpreparationforFOMCmeetings,policymakershavetheFedBoardstaffprojectionofthis“advance”estimateattheirdisposal.Theseprojections—availablethrough2008atthePhiladelphiaFed’sRealTimeDataCenter—havegenerallybeenmoreaccuratethanforecastsfromsimplestatisticalmodels.AsstatedbyeconomistsJonFaustandJonathanH.Wrightina2009paper,“bymirroringkeyelementsofthedataconstructionmachineryoftheBureauofEconomicAnalysis,theFedstaffformsarelativelypreciseestimateofwhatBEAwillannounceforthepreviousquarter’sGDPevenbeforeitisannounced.” TheAtlantaFedGDPNowmodelalsomimicsthemethodsusedbytheBEAtoestimaterealGDPgrowth.TheGDPNowforecastisconstructedbyaggregatingstatisticalmodelforecastsof13subcomponentsthatcompriseGDP.Otherprivateforecastersusesimilarapproachesto“nowcast”GDPgrowth.However,theseforecastsarenotupdatedmorethanonceamonthorquarter,arenotpubliclyavailable,ordonothaveforecastsofthesubcomponentsofGDPthatadd“color”tothetop-linenumber.TheAtlantaFedGDPNowmodelfillsthesethreevoids. TheBEA’sadvanceestimatesofthesubcomponentsofGDPusepubliclyreleaseddatafromtheU.S.CensusBureau,U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,andothersources.MuchofthisdataisdisplayedintheBEA’sKeySourceDataandAssumptionstablethataccompaniesthe“advance”GDPestimate.GDPNowrelatesthesesourcedatatotheircorrespondingGDPsubcomponentsusinga“bridgeequation”approachsimilartotheonedescribedinaMinneapolisFedstudybyPrestonJ.MillerandDanielM.Chin.Wheneverthemonthlysourcedataisnotavailable,themissingvaluesareforecastedusingeconometrictechniquessimilartothosedescribedinpapersbyJamesH.StockandMarkW.WatsonandDomenicoGiannone,LucreziaReichlin,andDavidSmall.AdetaileddescriptionofthedatasourcesandmethodsusedintheGDPNowmodelisprovidedinanaccompanyingAtlantaFedworkingpaper. Asmoremonthlysourcedatabecomesavailable,theGDPNowforecastforaparticularquarterevolvesandgenerallybecomesmoreaccurate.Thatsaid,theforecastingerrorcanstillbesubstantialjustpriortothe“advance”GDPestimaterelease.ItisimportanttoemphasizethattheAtlantaFedGDPNowforecastisamodelprojectionnotsubjecttojudgmentaladjustments.ItisnotanofficialforecastoftheFederalReserveBankofAtlanta,itspresident,theFederalReserveSystem,ortheFOMC. ©2017FederalReserveBankofAtlanta.Allrightsreserved.Permissionisgrantedtoreproduceforpersonalandeducationaluseonly. FrequentlyAskedQuestions IsGDPNowanofficialforecastoftheAtlantaFedortheBank'spresident? No,itisnotanofficialforecastoftheAtlantaFed,itspresident,theFederalReserveSystem,ortheFOMC. Isanyjudgmentusedtoadjusttheforecasts? No.OncetheGDPNowmodelbeginsforecastingGDPgrowthforaparticularquarter,thecodewillnotbeadjusteduntilafterthe"advance"estimate.Ifweimprovethemodelovertime,wewillrolloutchangesrightafterthe"advance"estimatesothatforecastsforthesubsequentquarteruseafixedmethodologyfortheirentireevolution. WhenwillnowcastsofGDPgrowthinaparticularquarterbeginandend? GDPNownowcastsofrealGDPgrowthinaparticularquarterbeginabout90daysbeforethe"advance"estimateforGDPgrowthforthequarterisreleased;theyendonthelastbusinessdaywithadatareleaseGDPNowutilizesthatprecedesthereleasedateoftheBureauofEconomicAnalysis’s(BEA)advanceestimateofGDPgrowth.ExceptafterannualbenchmarkorcomprehensiverevisionsofGDPtypicallyoccurringinlateJuly,GDPNownowcastsforaquartergenerallybeginontheweekdayaftertheadvanceestimateofGDPgrowthforthepreviousquarterisreleased.AftercomprehensiveorbenchmarkGDPrevisions,theinitialGDPNownowcastforthesubsequentquartercanbedelayedforaroundaweekuntiltheBEAreleasesrevised“underlyingdetailtables”fortheNationalIncomeandProductAccounts. Forexample,GDPNow’sinitialnowcastofrealGDPgrowthinthefirstquarterof2018tookplaceonMonday,January29,2018,thefirstweekdayafterFriday,January26,2018,whentheadvanceestimateofrealGDPgrowthinthefourthquarterof2017wasreleased.ThefinalGDPNownowcastofrealGDPgrowthinthefirstquarterof2018wasmadeonApril26,2018,andtheadvanceestimateofrealGDPgrowthinthefirstquarterof2018wasreleasedonApril27,2018. HowfrequentlyistheGDPNowforecastupdated? Themodelforecastisupdatedsixorseventimesamonthonweekdays,withatleastonefollowingsevendatareleases:ManufacturingISMReportonBusiness,U.S.InternationalTradeinGoodsandServices(FT900),WholesaleTrade,MonthlyRetailTradeReport,NewResidentialConstruction,AdvanceReportonDurableGoodsManufacturers,andPersonalIncomeandOutlays.Otherdatareleases,suchasIndustrialProductionandCapacityUtilizationandExisting-HomeSales,areincorporatedinthemodelaswellandtheirimpactonthemodel'sforecastwillbeshownonthenextweekdaywithoneofthedatareleases.TheproprietaryforecastsfromBlueChipEconomicIndicatorsandBlueChipFinancialForecastsshowninthechartareavailablefromAspenPublishers. HowcanIaccesshistoricalforecastsfromtheGDPNowmodel? Theseforecastsareavailableinthisdownloadablespreadsheet.Seethetab"ReadMe"inthespreadsheetforhyperlinkstothehistoricalforecastsandotherdataforthemodel.Inparticular,thetab"TrackingDeepArchives"hasforecastsforthe2011:Q3–2014:Q1period(beforethemodelwentlive),thetab"TrackingArchives"hasforecastsfrom2014:Q2throughthelastquarterforwhichanadvanceestimateofGDPhasbeenreleasedbytheBEA,andthetab"TrackRecord"hasacomparisonofthehistoricalGDPNowmodelforecastswiththeactual"advance"realGDPgrowthestimatesfromtheBEA. WherecanIreadaboutthemethodsandsourcedatausedinthemodel? Adetaileddescriptionisgiveninaworkingpaperdescribingthemodel.Tosummarize,theBEA'sNIPAHandbookprovidesverydetaileddocumentationonboththesourcedataandmethodsusedforestimatingthesubcomponentsofGDP.ThelateNobelPrize–winningeconomistLawrenceKleinpioneeredmanyofthe"bridgeequation"methodsusedformakingshort-runforecastsofGDPgrowthusingthissourcedata;a1989paperhecoauthoredwithE.Sojodescribestheapproach.KathleenNavin,aneconomistatMacroeconomicAdvisers,providesabird's-eyeviewillustratinghowtouseabridgeequationapproachinpracticetoimproveGDPforecastsinthis2017presentation.TheeconometrictechniquesusedinourGDPNowmodelwereheavilyadaptedfromtheGDPnowcastingmodelsdescribedina1996MinneapolisFedQuarterlyReviewarticlebyPrestonJ.MillerandDanielM.Chinanda2008paperbytheBoard'sDavidSmallandeconomistsDomenicoGiannoneandLucreziaReichlin. WherecanIfindalternativeforecastsofGDPgrowth? FormodelforecastsfromotherReserveBanks,seetheNewYorkFedNowcastingReport,theSt.LouisFedEconomicNewsIndex:RealGDPNowcast,thePhiladelphiaResearchIntertemporalStochasticModel(PRISM),andtheFederalReserveBankofCleveland'spredictionmodelforGDPgrowthbasedontheslopeoftheyieldcurve.Moody'sAnalyticsandNow-Casting.comproduceproprietarymodelshort-runGDPforecasts.Forsurvey-basedforecasts,seethePhiladelphiaFed'squarterlySurveyofProfessionalForecasters,whichincludesforecastsofrealGDPanditsmajorsubcomponents.TheWallStreetJournal'sEconomicForecastingSurveyoccursmonthly,andtheMoody'sAnalytics/CNBCRapidUpdatesurveygenerallyoccursseveraltimesaweek.NeitherofthesesurveysincludesforecastsofthesubcomponentsofGDP. HowaccuratearetheGDPNowforecasts?Aretheymoreaccuratethan"professional"forecasts? ThechartbelowshowsGDPNow'sreal-timeforecastsmadejustpriortothereleaseoftheinitialestimateoftheannualizedgrowthrateofrealGDPalongwiththeinitialestimatesfromtheU.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis. SincewestartedtrackingGDPgrowthwithversionsofthismodelin2011,theaverageabsoluteerroroffinalGDPNowforecastsis0.84percentagepoints.Theroot-mean-squarederroroftheforecastsis1.25percentagepoints.Theseaccuracymeasurescoverinitialestimatesfor2011:Q3–2022:Q1.SomefurtheranalysisofGDPNow'sforecasterrorsisavailableinmacroblogpostslocatedhereandhere.Wehavemadesomeimprovementstothemodelfromitsearlierversions,andthemodelforecastshavebecomemoreaccurateovertime(thecompletetrackrecordishere).Whenback-testingwithreviseddata,therootmean-squarederrorofthemodel'sout-ofsampleforecastwiththesamedatacoveragethatananalystwouldhavejustbeforethe"advance"estimateis1.15percentagepointsforthe2000:Q1–2013:Q4period.ThefigurebelowshowshowtheforecastsbecomemoreaccurateastheintervalbetweenthedatetheforecastismadeandtheforthcomingGDPreleasedatenarrows. Overall,theseaccuracymetricsdonotgivecompellingevidencethatthemodelismoreaccuratethanprofessionalforecasters.Themodeldoesappeartofarewellcomparedtootherconventionalstatisticalmodels. HowarerevisionstodatanotyetreflectedinthelatestGDPreleasehandled? Ingeneral,themodeldoesnotattempttoanticipatehowdatareleasesafterthelatestGDPreportwillaffecttherevisionsmadeintheforthcomingGDPrelease.Theexceptionisthe"changeinprivateinventories"subcomponent,whererevisionstothepriorquarter'sreadingaffectGDPgrowthinthecurrentquarter.UsersoftheGDPNowforecastshouldgenerallyusetheforecastsofthechangein"netexports"andthechangeinthe"changeinprivateinventories,"andnotforecastsofthelevels.Revisionstoretailsalesareusedtoanticipaterevisionstorealmonthlyexpendituresinthe"PCEcontrolgroup"andrevisionstohousingstartsareusedtoanticipaterevisionsinthemonthlyvalueofprivateresidentialconstructionspendingputinplace. Doyoushareyourcode? Atthispoint,no.However,theExcelspreadsheetgivesthenumericaldetails—includingtherawdataandmodelparameters—ofhowthemonthlydatamapintoforecastsofthesubcomponentsofGDP. WhatarethedifferencesbetweenGDPNowandtheFRBNYNowcastmodels?Whydothetwomodelshavedifferentforecasts? TheFRBNYNowcastmodelofrealGDPgrowthisbasedonadynamicfactormodeldescribedinthisLibertyStreetblogentry.TheChicagoFedNationalActivityIndexandAruoba-Diebold-ScottiBusinessConditionsIndexarebothindicatorsofeconomicactivityestimatedfromfactormodels.ThelatestnowcastfromtheFRBNYNowcastmodelalongwithsomerelatedQ&Aisavailablehere. TheAtlantaFed'sGDPNowalsousesadynamicfactormodel—basedonamodelfromoneoftheNewYorkFedeconomistswhocoauthoredtheLibertyStreetblogentry—butusesthefactoronlyasaninputtofillintheyet-to-be-releasedmonthlysourcedataforGDP.TheestimatesofthisdynamicfactorareavailableintheFactortabofthisExcelfile. ThemonthlysourcedataarethenusedtoestimatethesubcomponentsofGDP,whicharethenaggregateduptoarealGDPgrowthnowcast.Besidesadynamicfactormodel,GDPNowusesseveralothereconometrictechniques,including"bridgeequations"andBayesianvectorautoregressions,tonowcastthesubcomponentsofGDP.Theexactmethodsaredescribedinthisworkingpaper.Thenumericaldetails—includingtherawdataandmodelparameters—translatingthemonthlydataintonowcastsofthesubcomponentsofGDPinthelatestGDPNowforecastareavailableinthisExcelfile(seetheReadMetab). BecauseGDPNowandtheFRBNYNowcastaredifferentmodels,theycangeneratedifferentforecastsofrealGDPgrowth.Ourpolicyisnottocommentonorinterpretanydifferencesbetweentheforecastsofthesetwomodels. SubcomponentContributionCharts ThesechartsshowhowtheforecastedGDPsubcomponentcontributionstogrowthaggregateuptoGDPNow'srealGDPgrowthforecastforeachupdatedayinaparticularforecastquarterandhowchangesinthesubcomponentcontributionforecastsaggregateuptochangesintheGDPgrowthforecasts.Wheneverauserhoversthecursoroverabarinoneofthecharts,thepop-upboxdisplaysthedatareleasesforthedateofthebaraswellthenumericalvaluesfortheGDPgrowthforecastandeitherthelevelsorchangesinthesubcomponentcontributionforecasts.Forpreviouslyreportedquarters,thefinaldateinthetopchartshowstheofficialfirstestimatesofrealGDPgrowthandthesubcomponentcontributionstogrowthfromtheBureauofEconomicAnalysis(BEA).ThefinaldateinthebottomchartshowstheforecasterrorsofthefinalGDPNowprojectionsoftheBEA'sfirstestimatesofrealGDPgrowthandthesubcomponentcontributionstogrowth. Selectaquarter: ReleaseDates Releasetimesshownarefromtheoriginalsource.TheGDPNowmodelisusuallyupdatedwithinafewhoursfollowingthesetimes.Releaseschedulesubjecttochange. Release Dateofrelease Timeofrelease Wholesaletrade,ConsumerPriceIndex 11/10/2021 10:00a.m. Retailsales+inventories,Industrial productionandcapacityutilization,Importandexportprices 11/16/2021 10:00a.m. Housingstarts 11/17/2021 8:30a.m. GrossDomesticProduct(2021:Q3second estimate),Advancedurablemanufacturing,Personalincomeandoutlays,NIPAunderlyingdetailtables,AdvanceEconomicIndicators,New-homesales 11/24/2021 10:00a.m. ISMManufacturingIndex,Construction spending 12/1/2021 10:00a.m. Internationaltrade(Fullreport) 12/7/2021 8:30a.m. Wholesaletrade 12/9/2021 10:00a.m. Retailsales+inventories,Importand exportprices 12/15/2021 10:00a.m. Housingstarts,Industrialproductionand capacityutilization 12/16/2021 9:15a.m. Advancedurablemanufacturing,Personal incomeandoutlays,NIPAunderlyingdetailtables,New-homesales 12/23/2021 10:00a.m. ISMManufacturingIndex 1/4/2022 10:00a.m. Internationaltrade(Fullreport),M3Manufacturing(Fullreport) 1/6/2022 10:00a.m. Wholesaletrade 1/10/2022 10:00a.m. Retailsales+inventories,Industrialproductionandcapacityutilization,Importandexportprices 1/14/2022 10:00a.m. Housingstarts 1/19/2022 8:30a.m. Finalnowcastof2021:Q4GDPgrowth:AdvanceEconomicIndicators,New-homesales 1/26/2022 10:00a.m. Initialnowcastof2022:Q1GDPgrowth:Personalincomeandoutlays,NIPAunderlyingdetailtables 1/28/2022 8:30a.m. ISMManufacturingIndex,Constructionspending 2/1/2022 10:00a.m. Internationaltrade(Fullreport) 2/8/2022 8:30a.m. Wholesaletrade 2/9/2022 10:00a.m. Retailsales+inventories,Industrialproductionandcapacityutilization,Importandexportprices 2/16/2022 10:00a.m. Housingstarts 2/17/2022 8:30a.m. AdvanceM3manufacturing,Personalincomeandoutlays,NIPAunderlyingdetailtables 2/25/2022 8:30a.m. ISMManufacturingIndex,Constructionspending 3/1/2022 10:00a.m. Internationaltrade(Fullreport),Wholesaletrade 3/8/2022 8:30a.m. Retailsales+inventories,Importandexportprices 3/16/2022 10:00a.m. Housingstarts,Industrialproductionandcapacityutilization 3/17/2022 9:15a.m. AdvanceM3manufacturing 3/24/2022 8:30a.m. Personalincomeandoutlays,NIPAunderlyingdetailtables 3/31/2022 8:30a.m. ISMManufacturingIndex,Constructionspending,Employmentsituation 4/1/2022 10:00a.m. Internationaltrade(Fullreport),ISMNonmanufacturingIndex 4/5/2022 10:00a.m. Wholesaletrade 4/8/2022 10:00a.m. Retailsales+inventories,Importandexportprices 4/14/2022 10:00a.m. Housingstarts 4/19/2022 8:30a.m. AdvanceM3manufacturing,New-homesales 4/26/2022 10:00a.m. Finalnowcastof2022:Q1GDPgrowth:AdvanceEconomicIndicators 4/27/2022 8:30a.m. Initialnowcastof2022:Q2GDPgrowth:Personalincomeandoutlays,NIPAunderlyingdetailtables 4/29/2022 8:30a.m. ISMManufacturingIndex,Constructionspending 5/2/2022 10:00a.m. Internationaltrade(Fullreport),ISMNonmanufacturingIndex 5/4/2022 10:00a.m. Wholesaletrade 5/9/2022 10:00a.m. Retailsales+inventories,Industrialproductionandcapacityutilization 5/17/2022 10:00a.m. Housingstarts 5/18/2022 8:30a.m. AdvanceM3manufacturing 5/25/2022 8:30a.m. Personalincomeandoutlays,NIPAunderlyingdetailtables,AdvanceEconomicIndicators 5/27/2022 8:30a.m. ISMManufacturingIndex,Constructionspending 6/1/2022 10:00a.m. Internationaltrade(Fullreport) 6/7/2022 8:30a.m. Wholesaletrade 6/8/2022 10:00a.m. Retailsales+inventories,Importandexportprices 6/15/2022 10:00a.m. Housingstarts 6/16/2022 8:30a.m. AdvanceM3manufacturing 6/27/2022 8:30a.m. Personalincomeandoutlays,NIPAunderlyingdetailtables 6/30/2022 8:30a.m. ISMManufacturingIndex,Constructionspending 7/1/2022 10:00a.m. Internationaltrade(Fullreport) 7/7/2022 8:30a.m. Wholesaletrade,Employmentsituation 7/8/2022 10:00a.m. Retailsales+inventories,Industrialproductionandcapacityutilization,Importandexportprices 7/15/2022 10:00a.m. Housingstarts 7/19/2022 8:30a.m. Finalnowcastof2022:Q2GDPgrowth:AdvanceM3manufacturing,AdvanceEconomicIndicators 7/27/2022 8:30a.m. Initialnowcastof2022:Q3GDPgrowth:Personalincomeandoutlays 7/29/2022 8:30a.m. ISMManufacturingIndex,Constructionspending 8/1/2022 10:00a.m. Internationaltrade(Fullreport) 8/4/2022 8:30a.m. Wholesaletrade,ConsumerPriceIndex 8/10/2022 10:00a.m. Housingstarts,Industrialproductionandcapacityutilization 8/16/2022 9:15a.m. Retailsales+inventories 8/17/2022 10:00a.m. AdvanceM3manufacturing 8/24/2022 8:30a.m. Personalincomeandoutlays,NIPAunderlyingdetailtables,AdvanceEconomicIndicators 8/26/2022 8:30a.m. ISMManufacturingIndex,Constructionspending 9/1/2022 10:00a.m. Internationaltrade(Fullreport) 9/7/2022 8:30a.m. Wholesaletrade 9/9/2022 10:00a.m. Retailsales+inventories,Industrialproductionandcapacityutilization,Importandexportprices 9/15/2022 10:00a.m. Housingstarts 9/20/2022 8:30a.m. AdvanceM3manufacturing,New-homesales 9/27/2022 10:00a.m. Personalincomeandoutlays,AnnualNIPArevision*** 9/30/2022 8:30a.m. ISMManufacturingIndex,Constructionspending 10/3/2022 10:00a.m. Internationaltrade(Fullreport),ISMNonmanufacturingIndex 10/5/2022 10:00a.m. Wholesaletrade,Employmentsituation 10/7/2022 10:00a.m. Retailsales+inventories,Importandexportprices 10/14/2022 10:00a.m. Housingstarts 10/19/2022 8:30a.m. Finalnowcastof2022:Q3GDPgrowth:New-homesales,AdvanceEconomicIndicators 10/26/2022 10:00a.m. Initialnowcastof2022:Q4GDPgrowth:Personalincomeandoutlays,NIPAunderlyingdetailtables 10/28/2022 8:30a.m. ISMManufacturingIndex,Constructionspending 11/1/2022 10:00a.m. Internationaltrade(Fullreport),M3Manufacturing(Fullreport),ISMNonmanufacturingIndex 11/3/2022 10:00a.m. Wholesaletrade 11/9/2022 10:00a.m. Retailsales+inventories,Industrialproductionandcapacityutilization,Importandexportprices 11/16/2022 10:00a.m. Housingstarts 11/17/2022 8:30a.m. AdvanceM3manufacturing,New-homesales 11/23/2022 10:00a.m. ISMManufacturingIndex,Constructionspending,Personalincomeandoutlays,NIPAunderlyingdetailtables 12/1/2022 10:00a.m. Internationaltrade(Fullreport) 12/6/2022 8:30a.m. Wholesaletrade,ProducerPriceIndex 12/9/2022 10:00a.m. Retailsales+inventories,Industrialproductionandcapacityutilization 12/15/2022 10:00a.m. Housingstarts 12/20/2022 8:30a.m. AdvanceM3manufacturing,Personalincomeandoutlays,NIPAunderlyingdetailtables,New-homesales 12/23/2022 10:00a.m. Downloadaspreadsheetofthesereleasedates *Timeoflasteconomicrelease;GDPNowupdatetypicallyreleased1.5to3.0hoursafterthistime. ***DuetothereleaseoftheannualNIPArevision,GDPNowupdateonthisdatemaybedelayed.