us fed outcome - The Economic Times

We expect rupee to weaken towards 79-79.50 vs dollar post US Fed outcome: Gaurang Somaiya. "As far as the rupee is concerned, broader dollar strength is also ... Search+HomeETPrimeMarketsNewsIndustryRISEPoliticsWealthMutualFundsTechJobsOpinionNRIPanacheETNOWMoreBusinessNews›usfedoutcomeSEARCHEDFOR:USFEDOUTCOMEWhyUSisnolongerheadingforarecessionbutisactuallyinarecessionHistoryshowsthatseriousFedtighteningusuallyleadstoarecession.Hence,someanalystsforecastarecessionbytheendoftheFed'stighteningcycleinlate2023.However,rapidchangesintheAtlantaFed'sGDPNowmodelsuggestthattherecessionmaybeherealready.21Jun,2022,11.20PMISTHowtheUSFedpolicymayimpactNiftyandtherupeeThisrecenthikehascloselyarrivedonthebackofthe50-bpsratehikeinMayand25-bpsinMarch.FromMarchtodate,theFedhasalreadyseena150-bpsratehike.So,withinfourmonths-March,April,MayandJune,theFedhasacceleratedtheratehike.19Jun,2022,11.45AMISTWeexpectrupeetoweakentowards79-79.50vsdollarpostUSFedoutcome:GaurangSomaiya"Asfarastherupeeisconcerned,broaderdollarstrengthisalsonotimpactingthecurrencyandRBIcontinuestoactivelyintervenetocurtailthevolatility.WeexpecttheUSDINRpairtotradewithapositivebiasandisheadedtowards79.00-79.50intheshorttermaslongas77isheldonthedownside."17Jun,2022,11.29AMISTSensexdownnearly4,000pointsinaweek.Here'showtocopewiththestressDalalStreet'sfavouritefundmanager,whosePMShandlesassetsworthoverRs11,000crore,isbusybuyingstocksworthRs10croreonanaverageeveryday.16Jun,2022,04.48PMISTFOMCReview:WhatforcedUSFedtoadoptrestrictivepathTheescalationtoahawkish75bpshike,higherthanthe50bpsguidedearlier,isinresponsetothesurprisinglyhighretailinflationat8.6percentforMay2022andspikedupinflationexpectation.Withtheunemploymentrateathistoricallowlevelsthereisariskofthewage-pricespiralsettingin.16Jun,2022,12.37PMISTSensexends152ptslowerasinvestorsturnjitteryaheadofFedpolicyoutcomeD-StreethasbeenuneasyaboutaggressiveFederalReservepolicytighteningamidstubbornlyhighinflationanditsdominoeffectinIndia.ExpectationsthattheUScentralbankmayhikeinterestratesby75basispointslatertodayalsoheightenedconcernsofaloomingrecession.15Jun,2022,05.33PMISTAllNewsVideosTradingrallyispossiblebutglobally,astormisstillraging:AshwiniAgarwal“Onehastofindideasandkeepaddingtothemgraduallyaswegolong.Wedonotknowwhenmarketswillbottom,howdeeptheywillgobutthefundamentalsoftheIndianeconomy,relativetotherestoftheworldareinverygoodshapeandthatisthepositivenews.”15Jun,2022,03.07PMISTSensex,Niftyofftoweakstart;alleyesonFedpolicyoutcomeAt9.30am,theBSESensexwastradingover100pointsor0.20percentlowerat52,591.13.Nifty50wastradingat15,705.20,down26pointsor0.17percent.15Jun,2022,11.15AMISTHowitcametothis:TheFedandWhiteHouse'sslowinflationawakeningMorethanayearlater,priceincreasesat40-yearpeakshaveproventobeanythingbut,somuchsothattheFedthisweekappearsreadytohikeinterestratesbythemostsince1994toquellthem.Biden,meanwhile,ispayingthepoliticalpriceforbeingthefaceAmericansblamefor$5agallongasand10%priceincreasesforeggs.15Jun,2022,10.56AMISTFPIsmorebearishonequitiesthanduringfirstCovidjoltThelong-shortratioinindexfutures-ameasureofthenumberofbullishpositionsversusbearishones-ofoverseasinvestorsstoodat12%onMonday,thelowestinovertwoyears.Alowreadingmeansforeigninvestorsarebearish.Thepreviouslowwas12.4%onFebruary28,2020,whenconcernsoverthespreadofCovidhaderupted.15Jun,2022,06.33AMISTAheadofMarket:10thingsthatwilldecideD-StactiononWednesday"ThedailyRSIisinabearishcrossover.Thetrendislikelytoremainsidewardintheshortterm.Onthelowerend,supportisvisibleat15,650.Onthehigherend,resistanceisplacedat15,900/16,000,”saidRupakDe,SeniorTechnicalAnalystatLKPSecurities.14Jun,2022,09.59PMISTCrudeoillikelytoremainvolatileaheadofUSFedmeeting;$110-125perbarrelrangeeyedWTIcrudefuturesjumpedabove$120perbarrelonMondayafterSaudiArabiasharplyraisedpricesforitscrudesalesinJulyhighlightingtightglobalsupplies.13Jun,2022,06.21PMISTHere’swhatyouneedtoknowaboutAmerica’ssuper-hotinflationAmericansareconfrontingmoreexpensivefood,fuelandhousing,andsomearegraspingforanswersaboutwhat'scausingthepriceburst,howlongitmightlastandwhatcanbedonetoresolveit.Atthesametime,thewarinUkraineiscuttingintotheworld’ssupplyoffoodandfuel,pushingoverallinflationhigherandfeedingintothecostofotherproductsandservices.12Jun,2022,06.10PMISTDollaronfrontfootastradersawaitUSinflationdataforFedcuesTheindex"lookstohavenavigatedamoredeterminedandhawkishECBwithrelativeease.Theirplanstoraiseratesby25bpinJulyandSepandtablingpotentiallylargerincrementswasevidentlynomorehawkishthanexpected,"saidanalystsatWestpac.10Jun,2022,10.19AMISTSensex,Niftyendintheredafterchoppysession;alleyesonRBIpolicyoutcomeThe30-sharepackSensexsettled93pointslowerat55,675.32.Itsbroaderpeer,Nifty50,slippedto16,570levels.TradersareontenterhooksastheReserveBankbeganitsthree-daymonetarypolicymeetingtodeliberateanotherroundofratehikes.06Jun,2022,05.00PMISTPowellsaysFedwillfixinflation,callspricestability'bedrock'ofeconomyWith"perfecthindsight,"Powellsaid,it"wouldhavebeenbetter"tohavebegunraisingratesearlierthanMarchofthisyear,giveninflationbeganasharpturnhigherin2021.13May,2022,07.27AMISTUSinflationmighthavedippedlastmonthfrom40yrhighEarliersignsthatUSinflationmightbepeakingdidn'tlast.PriceincreasesdeceleratedlastAugustandSeptember,suggestingatthetimethathigherinflationmightbetemporary,asmanyeconomists-andofficialsattheFederalReserve-hadsuggested.ButpricesshotupagaininOctober,promptingFedChairJeromePowelltostartshiftingpolicytowardhigherrates.11May,2022,10.12AMISTUSFedtocarryoutmoreratehikes,RBImayneedtofollowsuitThesevereimbalancesinthelabourmarketneedslowdownonthedemandside,whichisnecessitatingbothmonetarytighteningandremovaloffiscalsupport,whichhasbeenreiteratedbyPresidentJoeBidenthisweek.07May,2022,11.34AMISTUSFedhikesratesby50bps:KeyhighlightsofFOMCmeetoutcome05May,2022,09.14AMISTSensextanks1,307ptsonRBIratehike;investorwealthworthRs6LcrwipedoffBankingstocksplummetedafterthecentralbanksaiditwillalsohikethecashreserveratio,whichwillsuckoutRs87,000croreliquidityfromthesystem04May,2022,04.37PMISTWhencanFIIsreturn?Fed'sprevioustighteningcycledropssomecluesFIImoneywillcomebackmuchsoonerthanFed’stimelineforunwinding.Notonlyitwillbesooner,butitwillbemuchlargerthanwhatwentout.Thisisonereasonwhysomeseasonedinvestorsareexpectingamelt-up(bull-run)forIndianmarketsnextyear(2023).03May,2022,02.52PMISTJapanesesharesendlowerasinvestorsawaitFOMCoutcome"Therewasnodirectioninthemarkettoday...Althoughtheratehikehasbeenalreadyfactoredin,therewereuncertaintiesamonginvestorshowhawkishtheFedwouldbecome,"saidShujiHosoi,seniorstrategistatDaiwaSecurities.02May,2022,02.00PMISTSensex,NiftygainaheadofRBIpolicyoutcome"Today'smonetarypolicyisunlikelytoimpactthemarketsignificantlyevenifthereisasurpriseratehike.ThatwouldbeinterpretedbythemarketpositivelyindicatingthattheRBIisnotbehindthecurve,"saidVKVijayakumar,ChiefInvestmentStrategistatGeojitFinancialServices.08Apr,2022,11.00AMISTAustraliansharesendhigherastech,banksgain;FedoutcomeinfocusTheS&P/ASX200indexended1.1%higherat7,175.2points.16Mar,2022,01.55PMISTRupeefalls6paiseto76.60againstdollaraheadofFedpolicyoutcomeAttheinterbankforeignexchangemarket,therupeeopenedstrongat76.40againsttheAmericandollar.However,itparedgainslatertoenterthenegativeterritoryasinvestorsturnedcautiousamidintensifyingRussia-Ukraineconflict.Duringtheday,itmovedintherangeof76.32and76.68.15Mar,2022,05.30PMISTUkraineinvasioncompoundsFedtask,raisesthreatofrecessionTheUSFedhasanunenviablechoicetomake;takeswiftandsteeptighteningactionwhiletheconcurrentgrowthisstillstrong,therebytameinflationandimprovefutureprospectsorletstagflationturnintoarecession.ThesituationhasgotconfoundedbytheRussianincursionwhichcanspikeupcrudepricesbeyondthe$100mark.Thus,equitymarketsarefacedwiththeprospectofrisingmarketriskpremiumandelevatedvolatility.27Feb,2022,12.18PMISTFedbacksMarchliftoff,won’truleouthikeeverymeeting“Withinflationwellabove2percentandastronglabormarket,thecommitteeexpectsitwillsoonbeappropriatetoraisethetargetrangeforthefederalfundsrate,”theFederalOpenMarketCommitteesaidinastatementWednesdayfollowingatwo-daypolicymeeting.27Jan,2022,06.48AMISTSensexrises280pointsdespiteUSFedturninghawkish;here'swhyTheFedlaidoutascenarioinwhichthepandemic,despitetheemergenceoftheOmicronvariant,giveswaytoabenignsetofeconomicconditions,withinflationeasinglargelyonitsown,interestratesincreasingcomparativelyslowly,andtheunemploymentratestayinglowincomingyears.16Dec,2021,10.17AMISTFeddoublestaper,signalsthree2022hikesininflationpivotHeraldingoneofthemosthawkishpolicypivotsinyears,thecentralbanksaidWednesdayitwilldoublethepaceatwhichit’sscalingbackpurchasesofTreasuriesandmortgage-backedsecuritiesto$30billionamonth,puttingitontracktoconcludetheprograminearly2022,ratherthanmid-yearasinitiallyplanned.16Dec,2021,07.52AMIST 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