U.S. Marriage Rates Hit New Recorded Low

The national marriage rate fell from 6.9 to 6.5 marriages per 1,000 people from 2017 to 2018. The dip was the first noticeable change in a ... Skiptomaincontent U.S.MarriageRatesHitNewRecordedLow April29,2020 Print Facebook Twitter Email Datareleasedyesterdayshowsweddingbellsaregrowingever-fainterinstatesacrossAmerica.Thisdeclineinmarriagecanbeseeninthedataevenbeforeanypotentialimpactofthecoronavirus,whichisexpectedtolowerthenumbersevenfurtherduetosocialdistancing-relateddelays. AccordingtothelatestdatafromtheNationalCenterforHealthStatistics,marriagerateshitanall-timelowin2018,themostrecentlyrecordedyear.Thenationalmarriageratefellfrom6.9to6.5marriagesper1,000peoplefrom2017to2018.Thedipwasthefirstnoticeablechangeinafairly-stabletrendoverthepastdecade,followingalongdeclinestartinginthemid-1980s.Asrecentlyas2001,thenationalratewas8.2marriagesper1,000people. UnitedStatesmarriagerate,1900-2018Rateper1,000population Source:CDC/NCHS,NationalVitalStatisticsSystem. Marriageisanintenselypersonaldecision,butalsohaseconomicandsocialdimensions.ThedramatichighpointinthemarriageratefollowedtheendofWorldWarII,whiletheGreatDepressioncausedanotabledeclineintheearly1930s.Morerecently,reviewingmarriagetrendsbyregionshowsthatstatesthatpreviouslyhadhigherratesofmarriage,includingthoseintheWestandSouth,haveconvergedtothelowerlevelswhichhavebeennormalfordecadesintheNortheast. Marriageratesbyregion(1900,1995,1999-2018)Per1,000population Outliers(NV,HI)suppressed.Source:CDC/NCHS,NationalVitalStatisticsSystem. Aheatmap,showingtheprevalenceofmarriageper1,000people,showsthisconvergenceovertime(inthisfigureaswellasmostothers,NevadaandHawaiiareoutliersduetothehighnumbersofweddingsinthosestatesandsoaresuppressed.) Overthepasttwodecades,state-leveldatahasshownnear-universaldeclinesinmarriagerates.However,afewstatessawamodestincrease,possiblydrivenbythelegalizationofsame-sexmarriage,notablyMassachusetts,California,andMontana.TheDistrictofColumbiasawthehighestrise,witha60%increaseinweddingsoverthattimeframe. Marriageratesbyregion(1900,1995,1999-2018)Per1,000population Outliers(NV,HI)suppressed.Source:CDC/NCHS,NationalVitalStatisticsSystem. Overthepast18years,thenationalmarriageratehasfallenbyabout20percent,withthedeclineconcentratedamongstatesintheSouth.Atthesametime,thedivorceratefellbyabout30percentnationally,possiblyaresultofself-selectionoutofmarriagebylower-educatedorlow-incomeindividualsandfewermarriagesoccurringinthefirstplace.Stateswiththesmallestdeclinesindivorcewerepredominantlylocatedinthenortheast,whilesomestatesintheSouthsawdivorceratesfallbyathird. Changeinmarriageratesbystate,2000to2018Ratesper1,000residents Dashedlineisnationalaverage(-20.8%).Source:CDC/NCHS,NationalVitalStatisticsSystem.   Changeindivorceratesbystate,2000to2018Ratesper1,000residents Dashedlineisnationalaverage(-28.8%).Source:CDC/NCHS,NationalVitalStatisticsSystem.   Theremaybesomecompositionaleffectsatwork–astheU.S.populationages,morepeoplemoveoutofwhatwemightconsider“primeage”formarriage.Since2005,thefractionoftheU.S.populationbetweentheagesof18and54asashareofthetotalpopulationhasfallenfrom52.1to48.6percent.Ifwecontrolforthatdynamic,wecanseethatsome–butnotall–oftherecentdeclineinmarriageisattributabletodemographicfactors.(Thegreendashedlineshowstherateofmarriageamongtheagegroupwe’vedefined,whilethebluedottedlineshowswhatthemarriageratewouldbeiftheU.S.stillhadtheageprofileitdidin2005.)Therewasevenanincreaseintheadjustedmarriagerate,controllingfordemographicshifts,from2009to2016.Butdropinrecentyearsisnoticeableacrosstheboard,nomattertheanalysis.  UnitedStatesmarriagerate(2005-2018)Ratesper1,000population,per1,000adultsage18to54,andwith2005populationbase Source:ACS1-yearestimates;CDC/NCHS,NationalVitalStatisticsSystem.   Whilemarriagerateshavedeclinedforeveryone,pastSocialCapitalProjectresearchillustratesthatrateshaveparticularlydeclinedamongminoritiesandthoseinmiddleandlowereconomicquintiles.Decreasedmarriageisassociatedwithincreasesinunwedchildbearingoverthelastseveraldecades,particularlyforthesegroups. OneofthegoalsoftheSocialCapitalProjectisstraightforward:“Wewantmorechildreninhappymarried-parentfamilies.”Thisgoalispotentiallymademoredifficultasmarriagebecomesrarerandmoreselective.Recognizingthesocialandeconomicbarriersthatcausemorecouplestoputoffmarriageshouldbeapriorityforpolicymakers,andtheSCPwillcontinuetostudythesetrendsindetail.   PatrickT.Brown,seniorpolicyadvisor,withassistancefromRachelSheffield,seniorpolicyadvisor. Permalink:https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/republicans/2020/4/marriage-rate-blog-test LatestNews Oct07 Newsroom RankingMemberMikeLeeonSeptemberJobsReport Sep27 Research TheEconomicsofPriceControls Sep13 Research StateInflationTracker:August2022