The What, When, and How of Net-Zero Emissions - World ...

Net-zero emissions will be achieved when all GHG emissions released by human activities are counterbalanced by removing GHGs from the atmosphere ... Skiptomaincontent Accessibility QuickLinks Clicktoseemore Mainnavigation Footermenu-secondary MegaMenu Whatcanwehelpyoufind? WaystoGive Joinus ContactanExpert ExploreWRIPerspectives Back AllTopicsRemovefilter ClimatefiltersitebyClimate CitiesfiltersitebyCities EnergyfiltersitebyEnergy FoodfiltersitebyFood ForestsfiltersitebyForests WaterfiltersitebyWater OceanfiltersitebyOcean BusinessfiltersitebyBusiness EconomicsfiltersitebyEconomics FinancefiltersitebyFinance EquityfiltersitebyEquity SearchWRI.org Notsurewheretofindsomething?Searchallofthesite'scontent. Whatcanwehelpyoufind? WaystoGive Joinus ContactanExpert ExploreWRIPerspectives WhatDoes"Net-ZeroEmissions"Mean?8CommonQuestions,Answered September17,2019 By KellyLevin,TarynFransen,CleaSchumer,ChantalDavisandSophieBoehm CoverImageby:AaronMinnick/WRI. Explainer Topic Climate Social Twitter LinkedIn Facebook Email Print Moreon climatesciencecarbonremovalParisAgreementclimatepolicygreenhousegasesCOP26 Moreon climatesciencecarbonremovalParisAgreementclimatepolicygreenhousegasesCOP26 Editor'sNote:ThisarticlewasupdatedinJanuary2022 toincludeWRI’slatestresearchandinformationaboutnewnationalnet-zerotargets. Thelatestclimatescienceisclear:Limitingglobalwarmingto1.5degreesC(2.7degreesF)isstillpossible.Buttoavoidtheworstclimateimpacts,globalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionswillneedtodropbyhalfby2030andreachnet-zeroaroundmid-century. Recognizingthisurgency,arapidlygrowingnumberofnationalgovernment,localgovernmentandbusinessleadersaremakingcommitmentstoreachnet-zeroemissionswithintheirjurisdictionsorbusinesses.Todate,over80countrieshavecommunicatedsuch“net-zerotargets,”includingtheworld’slargestemitters(China, theUnitedStates,theEuropeanUnionandIndia).Ontopofthat,hundredsmoreregions,citiesandbusinesseshavesettargetsoftheirown. Butwhatdoesanet-zerotargetmean,what’sthesciencebehindnet-zeroandwhichcountrieshavealreadymadesuchcommitments?Hereareeightcommonquestionsandanswersaboutnetzero: 1.WhatDoesItMeantoReachNet-ZeroEmissions? Net-zeroemissionswillbeachievedwhenallGHGemissionsreleasedbyhumanactivitiesarecounterbalancedbyremovingGHGsfromtheatmosphereinaprocessknownascarbonremoval. Firstandforemost,human-causedemissions(suchasthosefromfossil-fueledvehiclesandfactories)shouldbereducedasclosetozeroaspossible.AnyremainingGHGsshouldthenbebalancedwithanequivalentamountofcarbonremoval,whichcanhappenthroughthingslikerestoringforestsorusingdirectaircaptureandstorage(DACS)technology.  2.WhenDoestheWorldNeedtoReachNet-ZeroEmissions? UndertheParisAgreement,countriesagreedtolimitwarmingwellbelow2degreesC(3.6degreesF),ideallyto1.5degreesC(2.7degreesF).Globalclimateimpactsthatarealreadyunfoldingunderthecurrent 1.1degreesC(1.98 degreesF)ofwarming—frommeltingicetodevastatingheatwavesandmoreintensestorms—showtheurgencyofminimizingtemperatureincrease. ThelatestsciencesuggeststhatreachingtheParisAgreement'stemperaturegoalswillrequirereachingnet-zeroemissionsonthefollowingtimelines: Inscenarioslimitingwarmingto1.5degreesC,carbondioxide(CO2)needstoreachnet-zerobetween2044and2052,andtotalGHGemissionsmustreachnet-zerobetween2063and2068.Reachingnetzeroearlierintherangeavoidsariskoftemporarilyovershooting1.5degreesC.Reachingthetopoftherangealmostguaranteessurpassing1.5degreesCforsometimebeforeiteventuallydropsdown. Inscenarioslimitingwarmingto2degreesC,CO2needstoreachnetzeroby2070(fora66%likelihoodoflimitingwarmingto2degreesC)to2085(witha50-66%likelihood).TotalGHGemissionsmustreachnet-zerobytheendofthecenturyorbeyond. TheSpecialReportonGlobalWarmingof1.5˚C,fromtheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),findsthatiftheworldreachesnet-zeroemissionsby2040,thechanceoflimitingwarmingto1.5degreesCisconsiderablyhigher.Thesooneremissionspeak,andthelowertheyareatthatpoint,themorerealisticachievingnetzerobecomes.Thiswouldalsocreatelessrelianceoncarbonremovalinthesecondhalfofthecentury. Thisdoesnotsuggestthatallcountriesneedtoreachnet-zeroemissionsatthesametime.Thechancesoflimitingwarmingto1.5degreesC,however,dependsignificantlyonhowsoonthehighestemittersreachnet-zeroemissions.Equity-relatedconsiderations—includingresponsibilityforpastemissions,equalityinper-capitaemissionsandcapacitytoact—alsosuggestearlierdatesforwealthier,higher-emittingcountries. Importantly,thetimeframeforreachingnet-zeroemissionsisdifferentforCO2aloneversusforCO2plusotherGHGslikemethane,nitrousoxideandfluorinatedgases.Fornon-CO2emissions,thenetzerodateislaterbecausemodelssuggestthatsomeoftheseemissions—suchasmethanefromagriculturalsources—aremoredifficulttophaseout.However,thesepotentbutshort-livedgaseswilldrivetemperatureshigherinthenear-term,potentiallypushingtemperaturechangepastthe1.5degreesCthresholdmuchearlier. Becauseofthis,it'simportantforcountriestospecifywhethertheirnet-zerotargetscoverCO2onlyorallGHGs.Acomprehensivenet-zeroemissionstargetwouldincludeallGHGs,ensuringthatnon-CO2gasesarealsoreduced. 3.WhatNeedstoHappentoAchieveNet-ZeroEmissions? Policy,technologyandbehaviorneedtoshiftacrosstheboard.Forexample,inpathwaysto1.5degreesC,renewablesareprojectedtosupply70-85%ofelectricityby2050.Energyefficiencyandfuel-switchingmeasuresarecriticalforreducingemissionsfromtransportation.Improvingtheefficiencyoffoodproduction,changingdietarychoices,haltingdeforestation,restoringdegradedlandsandreducingfoodlossandwastealsohavesignificantpotentialtoreduceemissions. Itiscriticalthatthestructuralandeconomictransitionnecessarytolimitwarmingto1.5degreesCisapproachedinajustmanner,especiallyforworkerstiedtohigh-carbonindustries.Thegoodnewsisthatmostofthenecessarytechnologiesareavailableandincreasinglycost-competitivewithhigh-carbonalternatives.Solarandwindnowprovidethecheapestpoweravailablefor67%oftheworld.Marketsarewakinguptotheseopportunitiesandtotherisksofahigh-carboneconomy,andshiftingaccordingly. Investmentsincarbonremovaltechniquesarealsonecessary.ThedifferentpathwaysassessedbytheIPCCtoachieve1.5degreesCallrelyoncarbonremovaltosomeextent.RemovingCO2fromtheatmospherewillcompensateforemissionsfromsectorsinwhichreachingnet-zeroemissionsismoredifficult,suchasaviation.Carbonremovalcanbeachievedbyseveralmeans,includingthroughland-basedapproachesandtechnologicalapproaches. 4.IstheWorldonTracktoReachNet-ZeroEmissionsonTimetoAvoidtheWorstClimateImpacts? No—despitetheenormousbenefitsofclimateaction,progressishappeningfartooslowlyfortheworldtoholdtemperatureriseto1.5degreesC(2.7degreesF). Significantgainshavebeenmadetoreduceemissions,suchasincreasingtheshareofrenewablesinelectricitygeneration.However,effortstophaseoutunabatedcoalremainwelloff-trackandmustdeclinefivetimesfasterby2030.Similarly,theshareofelectricvehiclesinlight-dutyvehicle(LDV)saleshit4.3%in2020,increasingatacompoundaveragegrowthrateof50%overthelastfiveyears.Althoughpromising,suchprogressstillneedstoacceleratesignificantlytohelpreducethetransportsector’semissionsandreach75-95%ofLDVsalesbytheendofthisdecade,atargetalignedwithlimitedwarmingto1.5degreesC. Additionally,actionmustbetakentoreversecourseincases,wherechangeisatastandstillorheadedinthewrongdirectionentirely.Forinstance,theworldneedstodrasticallyslowdeforestationandincreasetreecovergainthreetimesfasterby2030. 5.HowManyCountriesHaveNet-ZeroTargets? Globalmomentumforsettingnet-zerotargetsisgrowingquickly,withkeyeconomieslikeChina,theUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUnionarticulatingsuchcommitments.Bhutanwasthefirstcountrytosetanet-zerotargetin2015.Nowover80countries,representingmorethan70%ofglobalemissions,arecoveredbyanet-zerotarget. ClimateWatch’s Net-ZeroTracker showshowthesetargetswereset,suchasthroughnationallydeterminedcontributions(NDCs),long-termlowGHGemissionsdevelopmentstrategies(long-termstrategies),domesticlaws,policiesorhigh-levelpoliticalpledgesfromheadsofstateorothercabinetmembers.Thetrackeralsoincludesinformationonthescopeofthetargets,providinginformationabouttheGHGsandsectorscoveredbyeach,theextenttowhichthetargetreliesoninternationaloffsetsandmore. 6.DoestheParisAgreementCommitCountriestoAchievingNet-ZeroEmissions? Inshort,yes.Specifically,theParisAgreementsetsa long-termgoal ofachieving"abalancebetweenanthropogenicemissionsbysourcesandremovalsbysinksofgreenhousegasesinthesecondhalfofthiscentury,onthebasisofequity,andinthecontextofsustainabledevelopmentandeffortstoeradicatepoverty."Thisconceptofbalancingemissionsandremovalsisakintoreachingnet-zeroemissions. TheGlasgowClimatePact,signedatCOP26andmarkingthefiveyearanniversaryoftheParisAgreement,urgescountriestomove“towardsjusttransitionstonetzeroemissionsbyoraroundmidcentury,takingintoaccountdifferentnationalcircumstances.”Tothisend,thepactencouragesparties“thathavenotyetdonesotocommunicate…long-termlowgreenhousegasemissiondevelopmentstrategies”thatsetthecountryonapathwaytowardnetzero.Theshiftfrom“inthesecondhalfofthiscentury”to“byoraroundmid-century”reflectsanotableincreaseinperceivedurgency. 7.WhyandHowShouldCountriesAlignTheirNear-TermEmissions-ReductionTargetswithaNet-ZeroEmissionsGoal? Countriestypicallysetnet-zerotargetsforaround2050—nearlythreedecadesfromnow.However,inordertoensurethatthecountrygetsontherighttracktowardrealizingthisambition,thelong-termobjectivemustguideandinformnear-termactiontoday.Thiswillhelpavoidlockingincarbon-intensive,non-resilientinfrastructureandtechnologies.Countriescanalsocutnear-andlong-termcostsbyinvestingingreeninfrastructurethatwillnotneedtobephasedoutlater,designingconsistentpoliciesandsendingstrongsignalstotheprivatesectortoinvestinclimateaction. UndertheParisAgreement,countriesagreedtosubmitclimateplanseveryfiveyears,knownas nationallydeterminedcontributions(NDCs).NDCs,whichcurrentlytarget2030,areanimportanttooltoalignnear-andlong-termgoals.Wheninformedbyacountry’slong-termvision,thesedocumentscanhelpgovernmentsimplementthepolicies necessaryinthenearertermtorealizeanambitiousmid-centuryobjective. Manycountrieswithnet-zerotargetsarebeginningtoincorporatethemdirectlyintotheirnear-termNDCs,particularlynowthattheGlasgowClimatePact“notestheimportanceofaligningnationallydeterminedcontributionswithlong-termlowgreenhousegasemissiondevelopmentstrategies.”Ultimately,itiscriticalthatcountriesacttodayandsetnear-termplansthatwillputthemontherighttracktowardrealizingtheirlong-termobjectives. 8.AreNet-ZeroTargetsaFormofGreenwashing? No,buttheycanbeifusedasanexcusetonottakeboldclimateactioninthenear-term. Althoughnet-zerotargetscontinuetogaintractionwithgovernmentsandcompanies,skepticalvoiceshaveemerged,from academicjournals to campaigngroups to GretaThunberg’sspeech inDavos.Critiquesofnet-zerotargetsinclude: a.The“net”aspectofnet-zerotargetscoulddampeneffortstorapidlycutemissions. Criticsareconcernedthatthiscouldfosteranoverrelianceoncarbonremoval,allowingdecision-makerstousenet-zerotargetstoavoidemissionreductionsinthenear-term.Decision-makerscanaddressthisconcernbysettingambitiousgrossreductiontargets(targetsthatdonotrelyonremovals)alongsidetheirlonger-termnetreductiontargets. b.Somecountries’net-zerotargetsrelyonpurchasingemissionsreductions,delayingreductionswithintheirownboundaries. Somecountriesaresettingnet-zerotargetsthatrelyoninvestinginorpayingforemissionsreductionsfromothercountriestousetowardtheirowntargets.There’sconcernthatgovernmentleadersmightusethisstrategytoavoidreducingtheirownemissionsinthelong-term.Decision-makerscanaddressthisconcernbysettingdeepemissionreductiontargetsthatexplicitlyavoidorlimitusingoffsetstoachievetheirgoals. c.Thetimehorizonfornet-zerotargets—typically2050—feelsdistant. Today’sinfrastructurecanlastfordecadesandhaveamajorimpactonmid-centurytargets.Decision-makersmusttakethisintoaccountbyestablishingnear-andmid-termmilestonesfortheirpathtonet-zeroemissions,includingbysettingambitious2030emissionreductiontargetsaspartoftheirNDCs.NDCsaresubjecttotransparencyandaccountabilitymechanismsundertheParisAgreementthatcanfosterimplementationinthenearterm,whichiscriticalforalong-termnet-zerogoaltobecredible. Inshort,net-zerocommitmentsmustbe robust tobeeffectiveandadvanceclimateaction.Countriesmusttakeconcretestepstoensurethisiftheyaretoeffectivelyaddressthechallengeathand. RelevantWork Climate DesigningandCommunicatingNet-ZeroTargets Research July29,2020 HowYouCanHelpWRIreliesonthegenerosityofdonorslikeyoutoturnresearchintoaction.Youcansupportourworkbymakingagifttodayorexploringotherwaystogive. 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