Marriages and Divorces - Our World in Data

In many countries marriage rates are declining. The proportion of people who are getting married is going down in many countries across the world. The ... COVID-19vaccinations,cases,excessmortality,andmuchmoreExploreourCOVID-19dataMarriagesandDivorcesSummaryMarriagesMarriagesarebecominglesscommonAverageageatmarriageTherehasbeena‘decoupling’ofparenthoodandmarriageSame-sexmarriagehasbecomepossibleinmanycountriesMarriagetrendsshowthatsocialinstitutionscan,andoftendochangequicklyDivorcesDivorceratesincreasedafter1970–inrecentdecadesthetrendsverymuchdifferbetweencountriesMarriagesinmanycountriesaregettinglongerDatasourcesEndnotesLicenceCitationContents Summary Marriagesarebecominglesscommon:inmostcountriestheshareofpeoplegettingmarriedhasfalleninrecentdecades.However,thisisnottrueacrossallcountries.Acrossmostcountries,peoplearemarryinglaterinlife.Cohabitation–coupleslivingtogetherwhoarenotmarried–isbecomingincreasinglycommon.Singleparentingiscommonandhasincreasedinrecentdecadesacrosstheworld.TheNetherlandswasthefirstcountrytolegallyrecognisemarriageforsame-sexcouplesin2000.Sincethenatleast30countrieshavefollowedsuit.Therehasbeenageneralupwardtrendindivorceratesgloballysincethe1970s.Butthispatternvariessignificantlycountry-to-country.Divorceratesarelowerinyoungercohorts.Inrichcountrieswithavailabledatatheaveragelengthofmarriagebeforedivorcehasbeenrelativelystableinrecentdecades,andinsomecasesithasevenincreased. MarriagesInthissectionMarriagesarebecominglesscommonAverageageatmarriageTherehasbeena‘decoupling’ofparenthoodandmarriageSame-sexmarriagehasbecomepossibleinmanycountriesMarriagetrendsshowthatsocialinstitutionscan,andoftendochangequicklyMarriage,asasocialinstitution,hasbeenaroundforthousandsofyears.1Withthingsthatarethousandsofyearsold,it’seasytoassumethattheycanonlychangeslowly.Butdevelopmentssincethemiddleofthe20thcenturyshowthatthisassumptioniswrong:inmanycountriesmarriagesarebecominglesscommon,peoplearemarryinglater,unmarriedcouplesareincreasinglychoosingtolivetogether,andinmanycountriesweareseeinga‘decoupling’ofparenthoodandmarriage.Withinthelastdecadestheinstitutionofmarriagehaschangedmorethaninthousandsofyearsbefore.Herewepresentthedatabehindthesefastandwidespreadchanges,anddiscusssomeofthemaindriversbehindthem.MarriagesarebecominglesscommonInmanycountriesmarriageratesaredeclining Theproportionofpeoplewhoaregettingmarriedisgoingdowninmanycountriesacrosstheworld. Thecharthereshowsthistrendforaselectionofcountries.Itcombinesdatafrommultiplesources,includingstatisticalcountryofficesandreportsfromtheUN,EurostatandtheOECD.Youcanchangetheselectionofcountriesusingtheoption Addcountry directlyintheinteractivechart. MarriageratesintheUSoverthelastcentury FortheUSwehavedataonmarriageratesgoingbacktothestartofthe20thcentury.Thisletsusseewhenthedeclinestarted,andtracetheinfluenceofsocialandeconomicchangesduringtheprocess. In1920,shortlyaftertheFirstWorldWar,therewere12marriagesannuallyforevery1,000peopleintheUS.MarriagesintheUSthenwerealmosttwiceascommonastoday.Inthe1930s,duringtheGreatDepression,theratefellsharply.Inthe1930smarriagesbecameagainmorecommonandin1946–theyearaftertheSecondWorldWarended–marriagesreachedapeakof16.4marriagesper1,000people.Marriageratesfellagaininthe1950sandthenbouncedbackinthe1960s.Thelongdeclinestartedinthe1970s.Since1972,marriageratesintheUShavefallenbyalmost50%,andarecurrentlyatthelowestpointinrecordedhistory. Howdidmarriagerateschangearoundtheworld? Thechartalsoshowsthatincomparisontootherrichcountries,theUShashadparticularlyhighhistoricalmarriagerates.Butintermsofchangesovertime,thetrendlookssimilarforotherrichcountries.TheUKandAustralia,forexample,havealsoseenmarriageratesdecliningfordecades,andarecurrentlyatthelowestpointinrecordedhistory. Fornon-richcountriesthedataissparse,butavailableestimatesfromLatinAmerica,AfricaandAsiasuggestthatthedeclineofmarriagesisnotexclusivetorichcountries.Overtheperiod1990–2010therewasadecline inmarriageratesinthemajorityofcountriesaroundtheworld. Butthere’sstillalotofcross-countryvariationaroundthisgeneraltrend,andinsomecountrieschangesaregoingintheoppositedirection.InChina,RussiaandBangladesh,forexample,marriagesaremorecommontodaythanacoupleofdecadesago. Clicktoopeninteractiveversion Marriagesratesin1990vs.2010 Comparemarriageratesin1990and2010forallcountriesinourinteractivescatterplot. Inmanycountriestherehasbeenalargedeclineinmarriagesacrosscohorts Thischartlooksatthechangeinmarriagesfromadifferentangleandanswersthequestion:Howlikelywerepeopleindifferentgenerationstobemarriedbyagivenage? Inmanyrichcountriestherearestatisticalrecordsgoingbackseveralgenerations,allowingustoestimatemarriageratesbyageandyearofbirth.ThecharthereusesthoserecordstogivemarriageratesbyageandyearofbirthforfivecohortsofmeninEnglandandWales. Forinstance,youcanlookat30-year-olds,andseewhatpercentageofthemineachcohortwasmarried.Ofthosemenwhowerebornin1940,about83%weremarriedbyage30.Amongthosebornin1980onlyabout25%weremarriedbyage30. Thetrendisstark.Englishmeninmorerecentcohortsaremuchlesslikelytohavemarried,andthat’strueatallages. Therearetwocausesforthis:anincreasingshareofpeopleinyoungercohortsarenotgettingmarried;andyoungercohortsareincreasinglychoosingtomarrylaterinlife.Weexplorethissecondpointbelow. ShareofmeninEnglandandWaleswhoweremarriedbyacertainage2Downloadtheunderlyingdataforthischart(.csv) AverageageatmarriagePeoplearemarryinglaterInmanycountries,decliningmarriagerateshavebeenaccompaniedbyanincreaseintheageatwhichpeoplearegettingmarried.Thisisshowninthecharthere,whereweplottheaverageageofwomenatfirstmarriage.3Theincreaseintheageatwhichpeoplearegettingmarriedisstrongerinrichercountries,particularlyinNorthAmericaandEurope.InSweden,forexample,theaverageageofmarriageforwomenwentupfrom28in1990to34yearsin2017.InBangladeshandseveralcountriesinsub-SaharanAfrica,theaverageageatmarriageislowandhasremainedunchangedforseveralyears.InNiger,wherechildmarriageiscommon,theaverageageatmarriageforwomenhasremainedconstant,at17years,sincetheearly1990s.(NB.Youfindchildmarriagedatainourinteractivecharthere).Butthesecountriesaretheexceptions.Theageatwhichwomenmarryisincreasinginmanycountriesinallregions,fromNorwaytoJapantoChile. Clicktoopeninteractiveversion Shareofwomenmarriedbyageandyearofbirth Morepeoplemarryinglatermeansthatagreatershareofyoungpeoplebeingunmarried.  AccordingtotheBritishcensusof1971about85%ofwomenbetweentheageof25and29weremarried,asthischartshows.By2011thatfigurehaddeclinedto58%. Forolderpeoplethetrendisreversed–theshareofolderwomenwhonevergotmarriedisdeclining.Inthe1971censustheshareofwomen60-64whohadeverbeenmarriedwaslowerthanitisforwomeninthatage-bracketinthedecadessince. Youcancreatesimilarchartsforbothmenandwomenacrossallcountries,usingtheUNWorldMarriageDatasitehere.Thisletsyouexploreinmoredetailthedistributionofmarriagesbyageacrosstime,forbothmenandwomen. ShareofwomenwhowereevermarriedintheUKatagivenage4Downloadtheunderlyingdataforthischart(.csv) Therehasbeena‘decoupling’ofparenthoodandmarriageTheshareofchildrenbornoutsideofmarriagehasincreasedsubstantiallyinalmostallOECDcountriesAnarrangementwheretwoormorepeoplearenotmarriedbutlivetogetherisreferredtoascohabitation.Inrecentdecadescohabitationhasbecomeincreasinglycommonaroundtheworld.IntheUS,forexample,theUSCensusBureauestimatesthattheshareofyoungadultsbetweentheageof18and24livingwithanunmarriedpartnerwentupfrom0.1%to9.4%overtheperiod1968-2018;andaccordingtoarecentsurveyfromPewResearch,todaymostAmericansfavorallowingunmarriedcouplestohavethesamelegalrightsasmarriedcouples.Theincreaseincohabitationistheresultofthetwochangesthatwediscussedabove:fewerpeoplearechoosingtomarryandthosepeoplewhodogetmarriedtendtodosowhentheyareolder,andoftenlivewiththeirpartnerbeforegettingmarried.IntheUK,forexample,85%ofpeoplewhogetmarriedcohabitedfirst.5Long-rundataontheshareofpeoplelivingincohabitationacrosscountriesisnotavailable,butsomerelateddatapointsare:Inparticular,theproportionofbirthsoutsidemarriageprovidearelevantproxymeasure,allowingcomparisonsacrosscountriesandtime;ifmoreunmarriedpeoplearehavingchildren,itsuggeststhatmorepeopleareenteringlong-termcohabitingrelationshipswithoutfirstgettingmarried.Itisn’taperfectproxy–aswe’llseebelow,ratesofsingleparentinghavealsochanged,meaningthatratesofbirthsoutsidemarriagewillnotmatchperfectlywithcohabitationrates–butitprovidessomeinformationregardingthedirectionofchange.Thecharthereshowsthepercentageofallchildrenwhowereborntounmarriedparents.Aswecansee,theshareofchildrenbornoutsideofmarriagehasincreasedsubstantiallyinalmostallOECDcountriesinrecentdecades.TheexceptionisJapan,wheretherehasbeenonlyaveryminorincrease.In1970,mostOECDcountriessawlessthan10%ofchildrenbornoutsideofmarriage.In2014,thesharehadincreasedtomorethan20%inmostcountries,andtomorethanhalfinsome.Thetrendisnotrestrictedtoveryrichcountries.InMexicoandCostaRica,forexample,theincreasehasbeenverylarge,andtodaythemajorityofchildrenareborntounmarriedparents. Clicktoopeninteractiveversion Globally,thepercentageofwomenineithermarriageorcohabitationisdecreasing,butonlyslightlyInrecentdecadestherehasbeenadeclineinglobalmarriagerates,andatthesametimethattherehasbeenanincreaseincohabitation.What’sthecombinedeffectifweconsidermarriageandcohabitationtogether?Thechartbelowplotsestimatesandprojections,fromtheUNPopulationDivision,forthepercentageofwomenofreproductiveage(15to49years)whoareeithermarriedorlivingwithanunmarriedpartner.Overall,thetrendshowsaglobaldecline–butonlyarelativelysmallone,from69%in1970to64%projectedfor2020.Atanygivenpointinthelastfivedecades,aroundtwo-thirdsofallwomenweremarriedorcohabitated.Therearedifferencesbetweenregions.InEastAsiatheshareofwomenwhoaremarriedorinacohabitingunionincreased,inSouthAmericatheshareisflat,andinNorthAmericaandNorthEuropeitdeclined.Youcanusetheoption‘Addregion’toplottheseriesforotherregions. Clicktoopeninteractiveversion Singleparentingiscommon,andinmanycountriesithasincreasedinrecentdecadesThischartshowstheshareofhouseholdsofasingleparentlivingwithdependentchildren.Therearelargedifferencesbetweencountries.InColombiatherehasbeenanupwardtrend,andaccordingtothemostrecentestimates,13%ofallhouseholdsareasingleparentwithoneormoredependentchildren.InIndia,ontheotherhand,thecorrespondingfigureis5%,withnocleartrendupordown.6Thecausesandsituationsleadingtosingleparentingarevaried,andunsurprisingly,single-parentfamiliesareverydiverseintermsofsocio-economicbackgroundandlivingarrangements,acrosscountries,withincountries,andovertime.However,therearesomecommonpatterns:Womenheadthemajorityofsingle-parenthouseholds,andthisgendergaptendstobestrongerforparentsofyoungerchildren.AcrossOECDcountries,about12%ofchildrenaged0-5yearslivewithasingleparent;92%oftheselivewiththeirmother.7Single-parenthouseholdsareamongthemostfinanciallyvulnerablegroups.Thisistrueeveninrichcountries.AccordingtoEurostatdata,acrossEuropeancountries47%ofsingle-parenthouseholdswere“atriskofpovertyorsocialexclusion”in2017,comparedwith21%oftwo-parenthouseholds.8Singleparentingwasprobablymorecommonacoupleofcenturiesago.Butsingleparentingbackthenwasoftencausedbyhighmaternalmortalityratherthanchoiceorrelationshipbreakdown;anditwasalsotypicallyshortinduration,sinceremarriagerateswerehigh.9 Clicktoopeninteractiveversion Same-sexmarriagehasbecomepossibleinmanycountriesMarriageequalityisincreasinglyconsideredahumanandcivilright,withimportantpolitical,social,andreligiousimplicationsaroundtheworld.In1989,Denmarkbecamethefirstcountrytorecognizealegalrelationshipforsame-sexcouples,establishing‘registeredpartnerships’grantingthoseinsame-sexrelationshipsmostoftherightsgiventomarriedheterosexuals.Ittookmorethanadecadeforsame-sexmarriagetobelegalanywhereintheworld.InDecember2000,theNetherlandsbecamethefirstcountrytoestablishsame-sexmarriagebylaw. Inthefirsttwodecadesofthe21stcenturyattitudesandlegislationchangedquicklyinmanycountries:byDecember2019same-sexmarriageswerelegallyrecognisedin30countries.Wherearesame-sexmarriageslegal?Thismapshowsingreenallthecountrieswheresame-sexmarriageislegal.Alsoshownarethosecountrieswheresame-sexcoupleshaveotherrightssuchaslegalrecognitionofcivilunions.Morethanhalfofthecountriesthatallowsame-sexmarriageareinWesternEurope.ButthereareseveralWesternEuropeancountriesthatstilldonotallowthem.InItaly,SwitzerlandandGreecesame-sexmarriageisnotlegal,althoughinthesecountriestherearealternativeformsofrecognitionforsame-sexcouples.AcrossallofAsiaandAfrica,themostpopulatedregionsintheworld,same-sexmarriageisonlylegalintwocountries:TaiwanandSouthAfrica. Clicktoopeninteractiveversion Aresame-sexmarriagesincreasingincountrieswheretheyarelegal?TheNetherlandsbecamethefirstcountryintheworldtoopenupmarriageforsame-sexcouplesinDecember2000.In2001atotalof2,414same-sexcouplesgotmarried.Inthetwoyearsthatfollowedthenumberofsame-sexmarriagesdecreased,andafterthatitstabilizedataroughlyconstantlevel.(NB.YoucanexplorethedatafortheNetherlandsinourinteractivecharthere.)Inothercountriesweseeasimilarpattern–manysame-sexmarriagestakeplaceimmediatelyaftermarriageequalitylawsareintroduced.ThecharthereshowsthisfortheUS,plottingestimatesofthecumulativenumberofsame-sexmarriedcouplehouseholds,usingdatafromtheAmericanCommunitySurvey.Same-sexmarriageintheUSexpandedfromonestatein2004toallfiftystatesin2015,andthelargestyear-on-yeargrowthwasobservedpreciselyduringthisperiod,from2012to2015.10 Clicktoopeninteractiveversion HowcommonismarriageamongLGBTcouples?Thereareveryfewnationallyrepresentativesurveysthatspecificallyinterviewlesbian,gay,bisexualortransgender(LGBT)adults.OneimportantexceptionisasurveyfromGallupintheUS,withdatafortheperiod2015-2017.ThecharthereshowsthemaritalstatuscompositionofLGBTadultsintheUSusingdatafromthissource.ForLGBTAmericans,same-sexcohabitationisbecominglesscommon,butsame-sexmarriagesarebecomingmoreso.In2017,10.2%ofLGBTadultsintheUSweremarriedtoasame-sexspouse.Thatisupfrom7.9%inthemonthspriortotheSupremeCourtdecisionin2015,butonlymarginallyhigherthanthe9.6%measuredinthefirstyearaftertheruling. Clicktoopeninteractiveversion SomeperspectiveontheprogressmaderegardingmarriageequalityTherateofadoptionofmarriageequalitylegislationovertimegivesussomeperspectiveonjusthowquicklythingshavechanged.Intheyear2000same-sexmarriagewasnotlegalinanycountry–20yearslateritwaslegalin32countries.Changesinattitudestowardshomosexualityareoneofthekeyfactorsthathaveenabledthelegaltransformationsthataremakingsame-sexmarriageincreasinglypossible.11Thesecondchartshowsthatthetotalnumberofpeoplelivingincountriesthathavelegalizedsame-sexmarriagehasincreasedfrom15.9millionpeoplein2000(0.3%oftheglobalpopulation)to1.21billionpeoplein2022(15.1%).Asthethirdcharthereshows,theshareofcountrieswheresame-sexsexualactsareconsideredacriminaloffensehasgonedownfrom77%in1960to34%in2019.12Despitethesepositivetrends,muchremainstobedonetoimprovetherightsofLGBTQpeople.Insomecountriespeopleareimprisonedandevenkilledsimplybecauseoftheirsexualorientationorgenderidentity;andevenincountrieswheresame-sexsexualactivityislegal,thesegroupsofpeoplefaceviolenceanddiscrimination. Clicktoopeninteractiveversion Clicktoopeninteractiveversion Legalizinghomosexuality Youcanexploretheyearwhenhomosexualitybecamelegalineachcountryinourinteractivemaphere Clicktoopeninteractiveversion Marriagetrendsshowthatsocialinstitutionscan,andoftendochangequicklyAcrosstheworld,fewerpeoplearechoosingtomarry,andthosewhodomarryare,onaverage,doingsolaterinlife. Theunderlyingdriversofthesetrendsincludetheriseofcontraceptives,theincreaseoffemaleparticipationinlabormarkets(asweexplaininourarticlehere),andthetransformationofinstitutionalandlegalenvironments,suchasnewlegislationconferringmorerightsonunmarriedcouples.13Thesechangeshaveledtoabroadtransformationoffamilystructures.Inthelastdecades,manycountrieshaveseenanincreaseincohabitation,anditisbecomingmorecommonforchildrentolivewithasingleparent,orwithparentswhoarenotmarried.Thesechangeshavecometogetherwithalargeandsignificantshiftinpeople’sperceptionsofthetypesoffamilystructuresthatarepossible,acceptableanddesirable.Perhapstheclearestexampleofthisistheriseofsame-sexmarriage.Thede-institutionalizationofmarriageandtheriseofnewfamilymodelssincethemiddleofthe20thcenturyshowthatsocialinstitutionsthathavebeenaroundforthousandsofyearscanchangeveryrapidly. DivorcesInthissectionDivorceratesincreasedafter1970–inrecentdecadesthetrendsverymuchdifferbetweencountriesMarriagesinmanycountriesaregettinglongerDivorceratesincreasedafter1970–inrecentdecadesthetrendsverymuchdifferbetweencountriesTrendsintherateofdivorcesrelativetothesizeofthepopulationHowhavedivorcerateschangedovertime?Aredivorcesontheriseacrosstheworld?Inthecharthereweshowthecrudedivorcerate–thenumberofdivorcesper1,000peopleinthecountry.Whenwezoomoutandlookatthelarge-scalepictureattheglobalorregionallevelsincethe1970s,weseeanoverallincreaseindivorcerates.TheUNinitsoverviewofglobalmarriagepatternsnotesthatthereisageneralupwardtrend:“attheworldlevel,theproportionofadultsaged35-39whoaredivorcedorseparatedhasdoubled,passingfrom2%inthe1970sto4%inthe2000s.”But,whenwelookmorecloselyatthedatawecanalsoseethatthismissestwokeyinsights:therearenotabledifferencesbetweencountries;anditfailstocapturethepatternofthesechangesintheperiodfromthe1990stotoday.Asweseeinthechart,formanycountriesdivorceratesincreasedmarkedlybetweenthe1970sand1990s.IntheUS,divorceratesmorethandoubledfrom2.2per1,000in1960toover5per1,000inthe1980s.IntheUK,NorwayandSouthKorea,divorceratesmorethantripled.Sincethendivorceratesdeclinedinmanycountries.Thetrendsvarysubstantiallyfromcountrytocountry.InthecharttheUSstandsoutasabitofanoutlier,withconsistentlyhigherdivorceratesthanmostothercountries,butalsoanearlier‘peak’.SouthKoreahadamuchlater‘peak’,withdivorceratescontinuingtoriseuntiltheearly2000s.Inothercountries–suchasMexicoandTurkey–divorcescontinuetorise.AstheOECDFamilyDatabasenotes,between1995and2017(orthenearestavailableestimate),divorceratesincreasedin18OECDcountries,butfellin12others.Thepatternofrisingdivorcerates,followedbyaplateauorfallinsomecountries(particularlyrichercountries)mightbepartiallyexplainedbythedifferencesindivorceratesacrosscohorts,andthedelayinmarriageweseeinyoungercouplestoday.EconomistsBetseyStevensonandJustinWolferslookedindetailatthechangesanddrivingforcesinmarriageanddivorceratesintheUS.14Theysuggestthatthechangesweseeindivorceratesmaybepartlyreflectiveofthechangesinexpectationswithinmarriagesaswomenenteredtheworkforce.Womenwhomarriedbeforethelargeriseinfemaleemploymentmayhavefoundthemselvesinmarriageswhereexpectationswerenolongersuited.Manypeopleinthepostwaryearsmarriedsomeonewhowasprobablyagoodmatchforthepostwarculture,butendedupbeingthewrongpartnerafterthetimeshadchanged.Thismayhavebeenadriverbehindthesteepriseindivorcesthroughoutthe1970sand1980s. Clicktoopeninteractiveversion TheshareofmarriagesendingindivorceTrendsincrudedivorceratesgiveusageneraloverviewofhowmanydivorceshappeneachyear,butneedtobeinterpretedwithcaution.First,cruderatesmixalargenumberofcohorts–botholderandyoungcouples;andsecond,theydonotaccountforhowthenumberofmarriagesischanging.Tounderstandhowpatternsofdivorcearechangingitismorehelpfultolookatpercentageofmarriagesthatendindivorce,andlookinmoredetailatthesepatternsbycohort.Let’stakealookatacountrywheredivorceratesbeendeclininginrecentdecades.InthecharthereweshowthepercentageofmarriageswhichendedindivorceinEnglandandWalessince1963.Thisisbrokendownbythenumberofyearsaftermarriage–thatis,thepercentageofcoupleswhohaddivorcedfive,tenandtwentyyearsaftertheygotmarried.Hereweseethatforallthreelines,theoverallpatternissimilar:Theshareofmarriagesthatendindivorceincreasedthroughthe1960stothe1990s.In1963,only1.5%ofcoupleshaddivorcedbeforetheirfifthanniversary,7.8%haddivorcedbeforetheirtenth,and19%beforetheirtwentiethanniversary.Bythemid-1990sthishadincreasedto11%,25%and38%,respectively.Sincethen,divorceshavebeenonthedecline.Thepercentageofcouplesdivorcinginthefirstfiveyearshashalvedsinceits1990speak.Andthepercentagewhogotdivorcedwithinthefirst10yearsoftheirmarriagehasalsofallensignificantly. Clicktoopeninteractiveversion Divorcesbyageandcohort Whatmightexplaintherecentreductioninoveralldivorceratesinsomecountries? Theoveralltrendcanbebrokendownintotwokeydrivers:areductioninthelikelihoodofdivorceforyoungercohorts;andalengtheningofmarriagebeforedivorceforthosethatdoseparate. WeseebothofthesefactorsintheanalysisofdivorceratesintheUSfromStevensonandWolfers.15Thischartmapsoutthepercentageofmarriagesendingindivorce:eachlinerepresentsthedecadetheygotmarried(thosemarriedinthe1950s,60s,70s,80sand1990s)andthex-axisrepresentstheyearssincethewedding. Weseethattheshareofmarriagesendingindivorceincreasedsignificantlyforcouplesmarriedin1960sor70scomparedtothosewhogotmarriedinthe1950s.Theprobabilityofdivorcewithin10yearswastwiceashighforcouplesmarriedinthe1960sversusthosewhogotmarriedinthe1950s.Forthosemarriedinthe1970s,itwasmorethanthreetimesaslikely. Youmighthaveheardthepopularisedclaimthat“halfofmarriagesendindivorce”.Wecanseeherewherethatclaimmightcomefrom–itwasoncetrue:48%ofAmericancouplesthatmarriedinthe1970sweredivorcedwithin25years. Butsincethenthelikelihoodofdivorcehasfallen.Itfellforcouplesmarriedinthe1980s,andagainforthoseinthe1990s.Boththelikelihoodofdivorcehasbeenfalling,andthelengthofmarriagehasbeenincreasing. ShareofmarriagesendingindivorceintheUS,byyearofmarriage16 ThisisalsotrueformarriagesintheUK.Thischartshowsthecumulativeshareofmarriagesthatendedindivorce:eachlinerepresentstheyearinwhichcouplesweremarried.Ausefulwaytocomparedifferentagecohortsisbythesteepnessoftheline:steeperlinesindicateafasteraccumulationofdivorcesyear-on-year,particularlyintheearlierstagesofmarriages. Youmightnoticethatthedivorcecurvesforcouplesinthe1960sareshallowerandtendtoleveloutintherangeof20%to30%.Divorceratesthenbecameincreasinglysteepthroughoutthe1970s;80sand90s,andeventuallysurpasscumulativeratesfromthe1960s.But,sincethe1990s,thesecurvesappeartobefallingonceagain,mirroringthefindingsfromtheUS. Wedon’tknowyethowlongthemarriagesofyoungercouplestodaywilllast.Itwilltakeseveraldecadesbeforewehavethefullpictureonmorerecentmarriagesandtheireventualoutcomes. Clicktoopeninteractiveversion MarriagesinmanycountriesaregettinglongerAswesawfromdataondivorcerates,insomecountries–particularlyrichercountriessuchastheUK,USandGermany–divorcerateshavebeenfallingsincethe1990s.Thiscanbepartiallyexplainedbyareductionintheshareofmarriagesendingindivorce,butalsobythelengthofmarriagesbeforetheirdissolution.Howhasthelengthofmarriageschangedovertime?Inthecharthereweseethedurationofmarriagesbeforedivorceacrossanumberofcountrieswherethisdataisavailable.Animportantpointtonotehereisthatthedefinitionsarenotconsistentacrosscountries:somecountriesreportthemedianlengthofmarriage;othersthemean.Sincethedistributionofmarriagelengthsisoftenskewed,themedianandmeanvaluescanbequitedifferent.AstheUKOfficeforNationalStatisticsnotes:“Themediandurationofmarriageatdivorceinthisreleaseisrepresentedbythemiddlevaluewhenthedataarearrangedinincreasingorder.Themedianisused,ratherthanthemean,becausethedurationofmarriagefordivorcesisnotsymmetricallydistributed.Therefore,themedianprovidesamoreaccuratereflectionofthisdistribution.Themeanwouldbeaffectedbytherelativelysmallnumberofdivorcesthattakeplacewhendurationofmarriageexceeds15years.”So,wehavetokeepthisinmindandbecarefulifwemakecross-countrycomparisons.Onthechartshownwenoteforeachcountrywhetherthemarriagedurationisgivenasthemedianormeanvalue.But,wecangaininsightsforsinglecountriesovertime.Whatweseeforanumberofcountriesisthattheaveragedurationofmarriagebeforedivorcehasbeenincreasingsincethe1990sorearly2000s.IfwetaketheUKasanexample:marriagesgotnotablyshorterbetweenthe1970stothelater1980s,fallingfromaround12to9years.But,marriageshaveonceagainincreasedinlength,risingbacktoover12years.Thismirrorswhatwesawindataontheshareofmarriagesendingindivorce:divorceratesincreasedsignificantlybetweenthe1960s/70sthroughthe1990s,buthaveseenafallsincethen.WeseeasimilarpatternintheUnitedStates,NewZealand,Australia,andSingapore.However,thereisstillasignificantamountofheterogeneitybetweencountries. Clicktoopeninteractiveversion DatasourcesUNWorldMarriageDataData: Maritalstatus,marriagerates,andmeanageofmarriage,brokendownbysexGeographicalcoverage: SinglecountriesaroundtheworldTimespan: from1971onwardsAvailableat: Onlinehere.UNPopulationDivisionData: Householdsizeandcomposition(includingsingleparenthouseholds)Geographicalcoverage: SinglecountriesaroundtheworldTimespan: from1960onwardsAvailableat: Onlinehere.OECDFamilyDatabaseData: Maritalanddivorcerates,birthsoutsideofmarriage,andcohabitationstatusGeographicalcoverage: OECDcountriesonlyTimespan: from1970onwardsAvailableat: Onlinehere.EurostatData: Crudemarriageanddivorcerates;childrenbornoutsideofmarriageGeographicalcoverage: EuropeancountriesonlyTimespan: from1960onwardsAvailableat: Onlinehere.PewResearchCenterData: Policiesandlegalisationofsame-sexmarriageGeographicalcoverage: SinglecountriesacrosstheworldTimespan: from2000onwardsAvailableat: Onlinehere.NationalStatisticalAgenciesWealsorelyonnationaldatabases,whichprovideavarietyofdataincludingmarriageanddivorcerates;lengthofmarriage;maritalandcohabitationstatus.Examplesinclude:UK:UKOfficeforNationalStatisticsUnitedStates:USCensusBureauandCentersforDiseaseControlandPreventionAustralia:AustralianBureauofStatisticsSingapore:SingaporeStatisticsGermany:StatistischesBundesamtSweden:StatisticsSwedenEcuador:InstitutoNacionaldeEstadisticasyCensos,RegistroEstadísticodeDivorcios,2018NewZealand:NZ.StatInfoshare WordpressEditPageOurWorldinDataisfreeandaccessibleforeveryone.Helpusdothisworkbymakingadonation.Donatenow